Commentary: Polls Showing Trump Behind Are Off the Mark

Donald Trump

For the past several months, the public has been inundated by polls. national polls, state polls, issue polls. Yet, the 64-dollar question remains: Who is winning for President, Trump or Biden?

Over the past two months, the two presumptive nominees have swapped first place multiple times with Trump mostly in the advantage. So, the short answer is that the race is so close that neither is really ahead, at least we cannot say who is ahead in that national ballot test with high certainty. Trump is probably ahead very narrowly and has been since February.

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Commentary: Are Trump’s Polls Understating His Lead?

Donald Trump

During the two months since President Biden delivered his State of the Union address, a wide variety of legacy news outlets have been at pains to portray an infinitesimal improvement in his polling as a shift of momentum in the presidential race. Last week, for example, USA Today breathlessly reported that “Trump and Biden are ‘darn near even’ in the 2024 election.” If this was meant to provide moral sustenance for worried Democrats it was thin gruel indeed. Biden is an incumbent president struggling to keep up with a challenger most of whose time and money has been devoted to fighting off a ruthless lawfare campaign. Moreover, if history is any guide, it’s probable that the polls understate the strength of Trump’s support.

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Voters Head to the Polls in 16 States for Super Tuesday as 2020 Rematch Appears Likely

People Voting

Voters are heading to the polls in 16 states to cast their primary ballots on Super Tuesday as a 2020 rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden appears likely.

Biden has been holing up at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland, since Friday, according to his official schedule. He is set to return to the White House on Tuesday afternoon while his State of the Union address is scheduled for Thursday evening. 

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Trump Leading Biden by More than He Ever Has Before

Trump Biden

Former President Donald Trump is currently polling better against President Joe Biden than he has at anytime in the last two presidential election cycles as the two men head toward a likely rematch in November.

Trump is ahead of Biden by 3.8 points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, which is his largest lead this cycle against the president. The lead is also far above Trump’s record for the last two cycles, where he never led Biden in the RCP average and was only ahead of Hillary Clinton during two separate periods in 2016.

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Almost 40 Percent of New Hampshire Voters are Unaffiliated, Can Vote in GOP Primary and Possibly Skew Results

With efforts to close New Hampshire’s presidential primary likely failing, the state’s primary could be determined by the state’s independent voters, who make up nearly 40 percent of the state’s electorate.

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Commentary: Trump’s Popularity Is Not Inexplicable

In a routine that has become familiar of late, CNN’s Jim Acosta reports the ongoing ascendancy of Donald Trump in the polls with a mixture of dismay and disbelief. With these emotions front and center on his November 5 cable show, Acosta grimly reported the latest polling on the 2024 presidential candidates, noting that Trump is now ahead of Biden in five out of six crucial swing states. In Nevada, where Trump lost by 2 percentage points in 2020, Trump is now up by 11 points over Biden.

As Acosta proceeded to interview experts in an attempt to make sense out of this, the prevailing message was Biden is too old, and that has voters worried. David Frum, a reliable uniparty stalwart, reassured Acosta that “Trump is only three years younger than Biden,” and that Trump is so weak and elderly that he “can’t even open a jar of pickles.” The men then proceeded to applaud Biden as physically hale and hearty, dismissing concerns about his age as unwarranted.

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Campaigning Against Kamala: With Biden’s Future a Question Mark, Republican Candidates Raise Red Flags About His No. 2

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis\’ campaign blasted out a warning email on Friday, reminding Iowa voters what so many across the country fear: Vice President Kamala Harris could one day be in charge.

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As Indictments Pile Up, Trump Running Even or Better with Biden in New Polls

Despite facing three criminal indictments, former President Donald Trump is crushing his GOP presidential nominee competitors and running neck and neck with President Joe Biden, according to the latest polls.

In battleground Arizona, a new Emerson College poll finds Trump leading Biden by 2 percentage points in a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 presidential election.

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GOP Presidential Candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to Join Elon Musk and Investor David Sacks on X.com

Heading into Iowa for a big weekend after rising in the polls, Ohio businessman and GOP presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy will join Elon Musk and investor David Sacks live Friday afternoon on x.com.

The conversation on the social network platform formerly known as Twitter is set for 4:30 p.m. Central Time, hours before Ramaswamy joins much of the rest of the packed field of Republican presidential candidates at the Republican Party of Iowa’s Lincoln Dinner fundraiser in Des Moines.

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As Ramaswamy Rises in the Polls, Political Knives Come Out

Political outsider Vivek Ramaswamy is heading back to Iowa this week with a lot of momentum and a big target on his back in the Republican Party presidential nomination chase.

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RFK Jr. Hauls in Millions in Campaign Cash, but Lags Far Behind Biden’s Billion-Dollar Campaign

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may be a long-shot candidate for the Democratic Party presidential nomination, but he appears to be hauling in the kind of campaign cash that could give President Joe Biden and his re-election efforts some heartburn.

The Kennedy Jr. campaign last Friday announced its first million-dollar day just hours before the close of the critical July quarterly reporting period.

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North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum Launches Bid for White House, Joining Crowded Field of GOP Contenders

At a Fargo events center packed with family, friends and neighbors, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum stressed his small-town roots, his success in building a multi-billion dollar software business on the Great Plains, governing a growing state, and his vision for an innovative America in announcing his bid for the White House.

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DeSantis Enters Presidential Race with ‘Skewed’ Narrative He’s Better Positioned to Beat Biden than Trump

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis officially launched his presidential campaign Wednesday, ending months of speculation and ratcheting up what promises to be an intense battle for the Republican Party nomination. 

DeSantis enters the race as a top tier candidate, but still lagging far behind frontrunner Donald Trump, according to just about every poll out there. 

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U.S. Senator Tim Scott Launches Presidential Campaign as Living Example of the Land of Opportunity

U.S. Senator Tim Scott made it official Monday, launching his campaign for president in the North Charleston, SC, hometown that informed his core belief: That the United States of America is “the land of opportunity, not a land of oppression.”

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Pollster: Biden’s Re-Election Campaign Announcement ‘Like Christmas’ to Trump, Republicans

President Joe Biden announced his re-election campaign Tuesday, insisting he’s running again to “stand up for fundamental freedoms.” 

Republicans in the nation’s presidential battleground states say the out-of-touch 80-year-old Democrat has cost Americans their freedoms — and their finances. 

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Commentary: Democrats’ 8-Point Lead in Generic Congressional Ballot Evaporated

Don’t look now, but Democrats’ 8-point lead in the generic Congressional ballot question from a month ago has evaporated in the latest Economist-YouGov poll of registered voters, which now shows the race for Congress tied, 44 percent to 44 percent on Sept. 24-27.

On Aug. 28-30, Democrats were leading Economist-YouGov’s generic ballot 46 percent to 38 percent. Leading the change in the state of the race is largely an apparent collapse of support for Democrats among younger adults, and a strengthening of support for Republicans among older adults.

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Commentary: Talking Heads Push One Predictor to Key Elections but Ignore the Raw Numbers Behind Them – and That Changes Everything

There has been a lot of talk during this election cycle about “voter enthusiasm;” which side has it, what are its causes, and what might it all mean for the final result. Much of it is propaganda that should be ignored, but there are some numbers and data that can help illuminate the terrain. All that attention is appropriate, given that each and every election depends entirely on who shows up to vote.

Let’s start with the propaganda.

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Polls: Majority of American Voters Want Abortion Restrictions

Two polls released this week have found most American voters want limits on abortion.

Results of a Trafalgar Group/Convention of States poll released Wednesday found 57.6 percent of American voters want abortion to be legal in only specific circumstances, while a Rasmussen Reports survey published Tuesday showed 67 percent of likely U.S. voters say abortion should not be legal past the first three months of pregnancy.

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Polls Show Majority of Americans Agree with Overturning Roe v. Wade

Despite the narrative of the abortion industry and its political and media allies, several recent polls show the majority of Americans agree the Supreme Court should overturn Roe v. Wade and return decisions about abortion to the states.

Tim Carney at the Washington Examiner observed a YouGov poll published last week found 64% of Americans believe the Mississippi law that is at the center of the Supreme Court case – one that bans abortions past 15 weeks of pregnancy – is either acceptable, as is, or not restrictive enough.

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Commentary: ‘America First’ Has Answers for U.S. Crisis of Confidence

Joe Biden

A majority Americans begin 2022 full of worry and dread. During President Biden’s first year in the White House, societal anxiety surged, including among voters who identify as independents and Democrats. In the newest Axios/Momentive year-end survey, 2021 saw a 50% increase in fear about what 2022 will bring among independents. Democrats weren’t much more sanguine. They began last year with refreshing optimism as their party took control of the White House and Congress, with only 19% of Democratic voters declaring themselves fearful about 2021. By year’s end, that number had surged to 45%.

Reflecting this dour assessment, the RealClearPolitics polling average of Joe Biden’s approve/disapprove ratio also receded sharply for the last year, from a stellar 20-percentage-point surplus in his favor on Inauguration Day, to a minus- 10-point rating.

Given this environment, Republicans naturally grow more confident about the midterm elections. But taking nominal control of Capitol Hill won’t be enough. Will Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy and their lieutenants be content with stopping the woke and socialist-inspired agenda of progressives? Or will they boldly implement a full-throttle populist nationalist “America First” agenda?  

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Commentary: If Polls Are Right, Democrats Are Doomed But If They’re Wrong, It’s Worse

In less than three months, President Biden’s approval rating has tumbled from a remarkable position in a polarized nation to the lowest of all but two presidents since 1945. Democrats are panicked though refusing to course-correct, hoping the pandemic will retreat, the economy will rebound, and their agenda will pass through Congress and turn out to be popular down the line.

The standing of the party with voters, at this time, isn’t in doubt. It’s awful. Biden’s average job approval rating on July 20 was 52.4% in the RealClearPolitics average before tanking precipitously and taking the party’s fortunes with him as the delta variant surged and American troops withdrew from Afghanistan in a deadly and tragic exit. RCP currently has him at 43.3%. His approval in Gallup has dropped 13 points since June, six points in this last month. The latest Quinnipiac University poll had Biden’s approval/disapproval at 38/53, down four points in three weeks. Specific findings on leadership questions were dreadful, with Biden’s numbers falling since April by nine points on the question of whether he cares about average Americans, seven points on whether he is honest, and nine points on whether he has good leadership skills.

The latest Morning Consult/Politico findings from last week showed Biden’s approval underwater across the board, at 45% approval overall, at 40% on the economy, 44% on health care, 40% on national security, 33% on immigration and 36% on foreign policy. The only number not underwater was Biden’s COVID approval of 49%-46%, 30 points lower than it was last spring. Across all polling Biden’s approval on the questions of competence and accomplishment have suffered. And that Morning Consult/Politico survey stated, “The shares of independent and Democratic voters who say Biden has underperformed expectations have doubled over the past three months.”

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Trump Won’t Commit to 2024 Run, Says He’ll Decide ‘in the Not Too Distant Future’

Former President Donald Trump did not commit to running for president in 2024 while on Fox News on Thursday, but said he’d make a decision “in the not too distant future.”

“I think you’ll be very happy,” Trump told host Greg Gutfeld. “I’ll make a decision in the not too distant future, but I love our country.”

Trump contradicted his previous statement to Sean Hannity in June, according to which he had already made a decision on whether he would run for president again.

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Poll: Republican Trust in Media Lower Than Ever as Partisan Divide Widens

people using their phones while standing

The percentage of Republicans who say they trust the news has plummeted over the past five years despite Democrats’ faith in media remaining high, as the partisan gap in media trust continues to widen.

When asked “how much, if at all, do you trust the information that comes from national news organizations,” only 35% of Republicans said they have at least “some” trust, down from 70% in 2016, according to a Pew Research Center poll released Monday. Meanwhile, 78% of Democrats said they have “a lot” or “some trust” in the national news media, a slight drop from 86% in 2016.

The partisan divide in media trust is at its widest, and Republican trust in national news is at its lowest, since Pew Research Center began asking the question in 2016.

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New Poll Spells Bad News for Progressives in High-Profile Ohio Special Election

Shontel Brown and Nina Turner

Nina Turner and Shontel Brown, the two leading Democrats vying to fill a House seat that includes Cleveland, are tied with 33% support, a new poll shows.

The Aug. 3 special election will likely determine who will succeed Housing Secretary Marcia Fudge, who resigned the seat after getting confirmed in March. Though Turner, a close ally of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, entered the race as an overwhelming favorite, Democrats seeking a moderate alternative have lined up behind Brown in recent weeks.

Brown has been endorsed by House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, Hillary Clinton, the Congressional Black Caucus and other high-profile members of the Democratic establishment, while Turner has the support of the “Squad” and other progressives.

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Poll Shows Overwhelming Majority Support Voter ID Laws

The latest poll by Rasmussen Reports indicates that three-fourths of all Americans support stricter voter ID laws, such as requirements to present photo identification before voting, as reported by Breitbart.

The poll shows that 75 percent of likely American voters are in favor of laws that require presenting some form of photo ID, such as a driver’s license; only 21 percent opposed such a proposal. Among the 75 percent, 89 percent of Republican voters approved of such a suggestion, along with 77 percent of independents, and 60 percent of Democrats. In addition, an overwhelming majority of black voters support voter ID, at 69 percent to 25 percent.

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Commentary: COVID Panic Porn is Meant to Suppress Trump Vote, But It May Do the Opposite

Right on schedule, the panic pornsters are shrieking in unison that COVID-19 cases in the United States are on the rise. Virtually overnight, dozens of stories have appeared in the press, on the internet, or broadcast on the nightly news about the renewed danger.

Not surprisingly, the New York Times was one of the first out of the gate, warning us that “The U.S. Just Recorded Its Worst Week Yet for Coronavirus Cases: Cases, hospitalizations and deaths across much of the country are the highest they have been during the pandemic.”

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Commentary: Yes, the Polls Are Shifting

President Trump’s political obituaries count more reincarnations than a Hindu lifetime. Perhaps, a slate of polls this week show yet another rebirth. 

The president is surging in key battleground states, and at the national level, with 2016’s most accurate pollsters showing Trump en route to battleground victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, and Arizona. 

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Commentary: A Very Real Silent Majority Will Re-Elect Trump

Recently, President Trump tweeted two words that succinctly describe the winning coalition that will assure his November reelection: “SILENT MAJORITY.” This prompted a considerable amount of fustian mirth from the Twitter mob, a number of ostensibly serious opinion pieces in the corporate media, and contemptuous dismissal by the Democrats. The consensus was that Trump was indulging a Nixonian fantasy whereby white suburbanites frightened by an increasingly diverse electorate would save his presidency. This interpretation betrays profound ignorance about the term “silent majority,” which never had any racial connotation, and disregards what suburban voters really fear — Democratic incompetence in a time of economic uncertainty and social unrest.

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