Analysis: Democratic Retirements Could Help the House GOP Grow Its Majority in 2024

House Republicans appear to be in a better position to capitalize off of a wave of congressional retirements, as there are more Democratic-held open seats in swing districts that pose an opportunity for the GOP to flip in 2024.

There are currently 31 House members who are not seeking another term in the lower chamber, including 20 Democrats and 11 Republicans — nearly all of whom hold seats that are considered safe for the GOP. Four Democratic-held open seats in battleground districts in Michigan, Virginia and California are most likely to flip red, while several other seats are also up for grabs by the GOP in 2024, according to political analysts and electoral rankings.

Read More

Michigan Redistricting Places Incumbent Democrat U.S. Representative Dan Kildee in Competitive New 8th District

Michigan’s redistricting process has placed incumbent Democrat U.S. Representative Dan Kildee in a competitive new 8th Congressional District.

Prior to redistricting changing the numbers and lines, Kildee was running in the old 5th district, a district he has represented since 2013. Kildee is the Chief Deputy Whip of the House Democrat Caucus.

Read More

Michigan Approves New U.S. House Map, Leading to an Incumbent Versus Incumbent Primary

Michigan’s independent redistricting commission voted to adopt the state’s new congressional map Tuesday afternoon, with five of the 13 new districts being potentially competitive as both parties fight for control of the House.

The new map creates competitive seats along Lake Michigan, around the state capital and in metro Detroit. President Joe Biden would have won seven of the districts in 2020, while former President Donald Trump would have won six, according to David Wasserman, a senior editor at the Cook Political Report.

Despite Biden’s narrow edge on the new map, incumbent Democratic Reps. Elissa Slotkin, Dan Kildee and Andy Levin could be forced to run in very competitive seats as their party faces political headwinds ahead of the 2022 midterms. Republican Rep. Peter Meijer may also face a contentious race in 2022, as his current Grand Rapids-based 3rd district was put into a new district that Biden would have won by nine points in 2020, Wasserman said.

Read More