Commentary: Could the Baby Boomer Retirement Wave and Labor Shortages Absorb the Recession?

The national unemployment rate dipped to 3.5 percent in July, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, once again hitting more than 50-year lows.

It’s still peak employment as far as the eye can see. Even with the past two years’ high inflation dropping dramatically and disinflation usually correlating with higher unemployment and a recession, that simply has not occurred yet, despite all the warning signs typically associated with an economic slowdown or downturn.

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Fed Study: Ending Pandemic Unemployment Aid Connected to ‘Substantial Rise’ in Employment

States that ended pandemic unemployment aid saw “a substantial rise” in employment, according to a recent working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The study, which used data from 46 states and Washington, D.C., found that “in the three months following a state’s [emergency unemployment benefits] termination, employment increased by about 37 people for every 100-person reduction in EUB recipients.”

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