economists Archives - The Michigan Star

Job Gains Surge for Another Month as Unemployment Ticks Up

March 9, 2024 Michigan Star Staff

The U.S. added 275,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February as the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Friday.

Economists anticipated that the country would add 200,000 jobs in February compared to the 353,000 that were added in January, and that the unemployment rate would remain at 3.7%, according to Reuters. The job gains were announced two days after Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, told the House Financial Services Committee in its semi-annual monetary policy report that he does not believe that there is evidence for a recession, meaning rate cuts could be on the horizon.

Job Growth Exceeds Expectations Despite Mass Layoffs

February 3, 2024 Michigan Star Staff

The U.S. added 353,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in January as the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Friday.

Economists anticipated that the country would add 180,000 jobs in January compared to the 216,000 that were added in December and that the unemployment rate would tick up to 3.8% from 3.7%, according to Reuters. Despite the job gains, American employers cut 82,307 positions in January, a 136% jump from the previous month, amid a wider trend of layoffs as factors like high inflation continue to hurt business conditions.

U.S. Economic Growth Exceeds Expectations with Rate Cuts on the Horizon

January 26, 2024 Michigan Star Staff

The U.S. economy grew at a rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to gross domestic product (GDP) statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday.

In the third quarter of 2023, real GDP rose 4.9%, down from the second estimate of 5.2%, but in line with initial estimates. Economists expected that GDP growth would be around 2% for the fourth quarter of 2023, in line with typical U.S. growth rates.

China Finishes Off Year with Sluggish Growth as Economy Fails to Recover

January 17, 2024 Michigan Star Staff

China’s economy grew at a rate of 5.2% in 2023, failing to return to the same growth of around 6% year-over-year that was common before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The year’s growth was an improvement on the even worse growth in 2022, which totaled just 3% for that year, and economists expect similar sluggish growth in 2024 unless a big policy change occurs, according to the WSJ. A number of different indicators added to the dismal report, including real growth in urban disposable income, which grew at just 4.8% in 2023 and was the lowest year since 2002, barring 2020 and 2022.

Economists: Buying a Home May Not Get Any Cheaper Even If the Economy Tanks

November 26, 2022November 25, 2022 Michigan Star Staff

Despite expecting a recession and reduced inflation that would ordinarily put downward pressure on prices in 2023, a critical shortage of housing means prices are unlikely to change much, two economists told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

The median sales price for existing homes increased 6.6% in October compared to the same month in 2021, jumping to $379,100, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), primarily due to demand outstripping supply, according to both Nadia Evangelou, senior economist and director of real estate research at the NAR, and E.J. Antoni, economist at the Heritage Foundation. The inventory of unsold existing homes fell to 1.22 million in October, down 10,000 from September 2022, and less than the 1.39 million unsold existing homes in December 2019, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Vast Majority of Economists Predict a Global Recession by 2023

September 30, 2022September 29, 2022 Michigan Star Staff

Nearly three quarters of economists believe a global recession is at least somewhat likely to occur by the end of 2023, according to a survey released Wednesday by the World Economic Forum (WEF).

Roughly 70% of economists surveyed by the international lobbying group predict that the wave of interest rate hikes and tighter monetary policy that has swept the U.S. and E.U. in an attempt to combat inflation is unlikely to abate, echoing predictions from major financial analyst, Goldman Sachs. Fully 80% of respondents believed that real wages would decline in high-income countries with nearly 90% anticipating real wages declining in low-income countries.

U.S. July Job Gains More than Double What Economists Had Projected

August 6, 2022August 5, 2022 Michigan Star Staff

The U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in June, according to Department of Labor (DOL) data released Friday, more than double economists’ projections of 250,000 new jobs.

The unemployment rate edged down to 3.5%, according to the DOL’s report, which was also below economists’ predictions of 3.6%, according to The Wall Street Journal. The economy outperformed last month’s high job growth of 372,000, which had itself outpaced expectations, indicating that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate have not begun to cool off the economy.

Wall Street Is Freaking Out About One Major Recession Indicator

July 22, 2022July 21, 2022 Michigan Star Staff

Wall Street investors and economists are sounding the alarm over a yield curve inversion, one of the most reliable indicators that a recession is coming, according to The New York Times.

The yield curve inversion, or when two-year bonds have a higher return than ten-year bonds, hit its largest spread yet on Wednesday, sending investors into a panic, according to the NYT. Economists and investors see this kind of inversion as a negative omen for the economy, and every recession in the U.S. in the last 50 years has been preceded by a yield curve inversion.

Recession Worries Rising Among Economists

June 5, 2022June 4, 2022 Michigan Star Staff

Recession worries are rising among economists as inflation continues at high levels.

A top Moody’s economist has predicted a recession could hit within the next two years, but others are saying it could happen sooner.

U.S. Economy Adds Just 199,000 Jobs in December, Far Below Expectations

January 8, 2022January 7, 2022 Michigan Star Staff

The U.S. economy recorded an increase of 199,000 jobs in December and the unemployment dipped to 3.9%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced Friday.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in December, according to the BLS, and the number of unemployed Americans dipped to 6.3 million. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal projected the economy to add 422,000 jobs in December and for unemployment to fall to 4.1%.

December’s jobs report leaves the U.S. economy with roughly 6.5 million more jobs than at the end of 2020 but still 3.5 million short of pre-pandemic levels.

Biden ‘Inflation Tax’ Erases Gains in Workers’ Pay, as Democrats’ Own Economists Admit Fears

August 13, 2021August 12, 2021 Michigan Star Staff

One promise from the U.S. economy emerging from the pandemic was that American workers would benefit from a tight labor pool driving up salary and pay. And while that happened, the benefits have all been erased by the sudden surge of inflation on President Biden’s watch.

That means workers aren’t running in place, they are actually falling behind as rising prices force middle- and working-class families to make hard choices, like whether to fill the gas tank or the refrigerator.

Inflation topped out at 5.4% in July, the government reported Wednesday, the third straight month above 5%. When President Trump left office in January, inflation was in check at just 1.4%.

Jobless Claims Fall Below 400,000, Hit Economists’ Expectations

August 6, 2021August 5, 2021 Michigan Star Staff

The number of Americans filing new unemployment claims decreased to 385,000 last week as the economy continues its recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, according to the Department of Labor.

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics figure released Thursday represented a slight decrease in the number of new jobless claims compared to the week ending July 24, when 399,000 new jobless claims were reported. That number was revised down from the 400,000 jobless claims initially reported last week.

Key Inflation Measure Spikes Again, Hits Highest Level Since 1991

July 31, 2021July 30, 2021 Michigan Star Staff

Person in white shirt, walking into Gap store

A consumer price measurement used by the Federal Reserve to track inflation spiked again in June and hit its highest level since 1991, government data showed.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 4% over the 12 months between July 2020 and June, according to a Bureau of Economic Analysis report released Friday. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, the index spiked 3.5% in that same 12-month period.

The index increased 0.5% in June, in line with economists’ forecasts, CNBC reported.

“Inflation has increased notably and will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating,” Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell said during a press conference this week. “As the economy continues to reopen and spending rebounds, we are seeing upward pressure on prices, particularly because supply bottlenecks in some sectors have limited how quickly production can respond in the near term.”

Workers’ Coronavirus Fears Hit Pandemic Low

July 5, 2021July 4, 2021 Michigan Star Staff

U.S. workers’ fear of contracting coronavirus while on the job has hit a pandemic low as the economy continues its steady recovery.

The number of Americans not working due to their fear of getting the virus while at their job dipped to 3.05 million by the end of June, according to the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey released Wednesday. The figure hit its peak in July 2020 when 6.24 million unemployed Americans reported not looking for a job due to coronavirus fears, Axios reported.

“People are feeling safer about returning to work, which should help businesses staff-up to meet the tremendous demand we’re seeing right now,” Wells Fargo senior economist Sarah House told Axios.

Top Economists Expect Inflation to ‘Accelerate Strongly’ in Coming Weeks

May 25, 2021May 24, 2021 Michigan Star Staff

Economists expect inflation to “accelerate strongly” in the coming weeks and months, but said consumer prices would eventually moderate.

The consumer price index (CPI), a common measure for inflation, is expected to rise 2.8% in 2021 and 2.3% in 2022 compared to the 1.2% increase that occurred in 2020, according to economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

The projection, released Monday, reflected the Federal Reserve consensus that inflation will heat up by the end of the year before cooling down as the economic recovery continues.